ARCHIVES: Quarter 4 Year 2018

 

ECONOMIC NEWS:

 

ADMIN NOTES:

1. Most Asked Question of the Week: What are the Seasonal Coefficients for Demand in the Scent Industry?

The "Overview" section of the simulation User Guide provides the seasonal demand coefficients for the simulation listed by product type and quarter. The data will be presented here for your consideration:

Seasonal Demand by Product Type/Quarter

Quarter Number

Product 1
Product 2
Quarter 1
12.5%
30%
Quarter 2
25%
15%
Quarter 3
12.5%
15%
Quarter 4
50%
40%

 

These figures represent the percentage of total annual demand for the given product type within the given quarter. One can see that 50% of total market demand for Product Type 1 occurs in Quarter 4 each year. Market demand is influenced by many factors and is unlikely to remain constant for long, if ever, but having at least a rough estimate of quarterly demand can help firms forecast production scheduling, raw material inputs, cash flow, and all other requirements far beyond the coming quarter.

 

2. To request a Special Report, please contact your simulation administrator, Kristi. The Special Report contains additional reporting data on all firms within a given market group (ROI, ROE, Current Ratio, Production Efficiency Factor, Average Compensation, and more). The report is updated each quarter with new data and we do not archive old reports, so please request the special report for a given quarter before the following quarter's deadline, or the report may not be available. There is a $2000 simulation dollar fee for each report, billed as a miscellaneous expense in the following quarter. The special report is the only additional report available outside of the simulation menus.

 


 

ECONOMIC NEWS:

 

What a year!  Equity markets and GDP are into new territory.  Unemployment is down to a minimum.  Interest rates are fairly high due to tight monetary policy, which seems to be gradually reigning in an excessively robust economy.  As the economy is reigned in, inflation will more than likely decline to an unwanted but tolerable level.  Tax revenues have stabilized government programs.  In the EU this means some balance in revenues and expenditures which should remain as long as austerity cuts put in place aren’t suddenly repealed.  Mexico and Canada seem well positioned in that regard.  The United States is still spending faster than revenues permit.

 

The increasing discrepancy between balanced budgets (EU) and deficit budgets (US) might cause central banks to terminate their coordinated monetary policies.  This in turn could affect EU/NAFTA growth rates, inflation rates, interest rates and eventually exchange rates.

 

Forecasters see 2019 as a solid growth year.  They expect considerable labor unrest in NAFTA and the start of labor negotiations throughout the NAFTA and EU regions.  None of the negotiations/strikes should be so volatile as to disrupt the broader economy.  Tight credit and high interest rates should keep economic growth within long term sustainable limits and inflation should moderate.

 

Economists and analysts anticipate governments will start to refocus on global warming issues.  The global economy will also have a good year.  China will have continuous growing pains as it attempts to balance its priorities.  Of major concern to China is the rapid increase in imports due to elite consumer demand and the loss of exports as international firms move outsourcing to less expensive nations.  There has also been a movement of NAFTA firms, which relocated to China, to move back to NAFTA.  This is due to more friendly regulations and lower transportation costs.

 


INDUSTRY:

Raw material price increases took affect with Type 1 moving up $.98 and Type 2 moving up $.35.

 

Analysts for the scent industry think the economy and the industry have recovered and that future growth is all about ‘new’ progress as compared to the last couple of years of ‘recovery’ progress.  Thus, future growth in the scent industry will more likely link closely to GDP growth, which has a rather modest long term growth outlook.

 

 


 

CONTRACT

 

Firm-to-Firm Contracts this quarter.

          Industry  10 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             105     105    131   Finished Goods   P2A2     4000    
             101     101    156   Finished Goods   P2A1     2500    
             101     101    156   Finished Goods   P2A2     5500    
             105     105    114   Finished Goods   P2A2     7000    
             105     105    171   Finished Goods   P2A2     8000    

          Industry  12 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             125     153    125   Finished Goods   P2A2    10000    
             124     153    124   Finished Goods   P1A1     4000    
             124     153    124   Finished Goods   P1A2     2000    
             124     153    124   Finished Goods   P2A1     6000    
             124     153    124   Finished Goods   P2A2     8000    
             121     142    121   Finished Goods   P2A1     9200    

          Industry  13 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             132     111    132   Finished Goods   P2A2     5000    
             131     153    131   Finished Goods   P2A1     1000    

          Industry  14 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             141     151    141   Finished Goods   P2A2      363    
             141     174    141   Finished Goods   P2A1     3994    
             141     133    141   Finished Goods   P2A1     2500    
             143     122    143   Finished Goods   P2A1     3000    
             143     122    143   Finished Goods   P2A2     3000    

          Industry  15 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             151     151    102   Finished Goods   P1A1      850    
             154     154    123   Finished Goods   P2A1     4000    
             153     153    143   Finished Goods   P2A2    10000    
             153     153    115   Finished Goods   P2A2     5000    

          Industry  16 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             163     163    114   Finished Goods   P2A2     6072    

          Industry  17 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             171     174    171   Finished Goods   P2A1     6000    
             173     151    173   Finished Goods   P2A2     4000    
             173     151    173   Finished Goods   P2A1     1000    
             171     101    171   Finished Goods   P2A2     6000    
             171     101    171   Finished Goods   P2A1     1500    
             173     174    173   Finished Goods   P2A1     7000    
             173     154    173   Finished Goods   P2A1     3988    
 

Peacock is now closed to all simulation teams. If your firm needs to purchase finished goods, please visit the chat room/message board forum to find other simulation teams that can supply your firm with product (linked from the "Chat" tab of the Globalview.org homepage). If your firm needs the password to access the message board/chat room forum, please contact your simulation administrator, Kristi.

 

Note that BOTH teams must agree to the terms of a contract before it can be executed. Firms entering illegal contracts (contracts entered and submitted without the consent of the other team), will be ejected from the simulation.

 

*Remember that Peacock does NOT sell raw materials or plant hours. To purchase raw materials, use the "Raw Materials" decision form. These materials must be ordered one quarter in advance of using them in production. These will always be your cheapest source of raw materials.

 

To order plant hours, use the "Capacity" decision form to order stage 1 and stage 2 plant hours in the area or areas of your choice.


STOCKS

 


     List of firms in order of net present value 

             Stock No.    NPV    Index  
               136       19.60      1   
               153       10.51      2   
               126        8.82      3   
               146        6.68      4   
               174        6.57      5   
               163        5.09      6   
               133        4.63      7   
               105        4.60      8   
               154        4.39      9   
               151        4.37     10   
               116        4.08     11   
               142        4.06     12   
               101        3.70     13   
               111        3.33     14   
               172        2.72     15   
               143        2.67     16   
               132        1.90     17   
               114        1.73     18   
               103        1.41     19   
               152        1.11     20   
               156        1.06     21   
               164        1.04     22   
               144        1.01     23   
               173        0.99     24   
               162        0.88     25   
               125        0.88     26   
               161        0.80     27   
               102        0.75     28   
               121        0.48     29   
               115        0.46     30   
               104        0.39     31   
               141        0.27     32   
               123       -0.21     33   
               134       -0.23     34   
               124       -0.31     35   
               131       -0.40     36   
               171       -0.65     37   
               122       -0.73     38   
               112       -1.06     39   
               113       -3.12     40   



Stock  
Number                  D  a  t  e  s
        20174  20181  20182  20183  20184 
=====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  
  101    3.91   5.05   5.74   6.01   8.49 
  102    2.70   2.57   3.03   3.29   3.84 
  103    3.05   3.32   3.84   4.24   5.42 
  104    2.54   2.24   2.34   2.74   3.46 
  105    3.82   5.63   7.87   9.85   9.71 
  111    2.94   3.01   3.20   4.41   7.12 
  112    2.78   2.77   1.83   1.64   2.09 
  113    4.31   3.13   1.28   0.94   1.45 
  114    2.89   3.02   3.72   4.02   5.37 
  115    2.73   2.56   3.00   3.35   3.68 
  116    3.54   5.11   6.97   8.14   8.76 
  121    2.86   3.06   3.22   3.90   4.06 
  122    3.72   3.73   3.68   3.31   3.63 
  123    2.48   2.58   2.78   2.78   2.76 
  124    2.66   2.71   2.51   2.21   2.64 
  125    3.14   3.53   3.08   2.82   4.30 
  126    4.21   4.98   6.56   7.84  15.84 
  131    2.89   2.72   2.81   2.46   3.03 
  132    2.96   4.00   4.64   4.71   5.91 
  133    3.50   2.84   4.05   4.73   9.63 
  134    3.09   3.25   3.64   3.86   3.32 
  136    3.96   9.60  11.51  13.86  28.13 
  141    3.02   2.94   3.51   3.81   4.00 
  142    2.96   3.08   3.62   4.66   7.21 
  143    2.60   3.35   3.52   2.95   6.40 
  144    2.90   3.64   3.71   3.71   3.96 
  146    3.73   8.19   9.14   9.23  11.13 
  151    3.86   4.53   7.56   9.23   9.32 
  152    3.64   3.71   1.38   1.46   5.66 
  153    3.50   8.35  10.00  10.39  14.72 
  154    3.84   5.03   6.45   7.43   7.72 
  156    2.64   2.73   2.94   3.09   4.30 
  161    2.84   3.09   3.54   3.88   4.43 
  162    2.61   2.65   2.52   2.73   4.04 
  163    3.65   6.69   9.19   8.84  10.62 
  164    2.70   2.61   2.84   3.42   4.44 
  171    3.50   2.62   2.27   2.52   3.46 
  172    3.50   3.66   4.62   5.19   7.10 
  173    3.50   2.64   2.90   2.36   5.46 
  174    3.50   7.42   9.66  11.35  11.04 


  Mkt    3.36   3.96   4.52   4.93   6.69 

TBill  0.0200 0.0000 0.0037 0.0050 0.0063 

          Stock        Shares        Closing                 
         Number        Traded         Price           Change 
         ======      ========        =======         ========
           101              0          8.49            2.48  
           102              0          3.84            0.55  
           103              0          5.42            1.18  
           104              0          3.46            0.72  
           105              0          9.71           -0.14  
           111              0          7.12            2.71  
           112              0          2.09            0.45  
           113              0          1.45            0.51  
           114              0          5.37            1.35  
           115              0          3.68            0.33  
           116              0          8.76            0.62  
           121              0          4.06            0.16  
           122              0          3.63            0.32  
           123              0          2.76           -0.02  
           124              0          2.64            0.43  
           125              0          4.30            1.48  
           126              0         15.84            8.00  
           131              0          3.03            0.57  
           132              0          5.91            1.20  
           133              0          9.63            4.90  
           134              0          3.32           -0.54  
           136              0         28.13           14.27  
           141              0          4.00            0.19  
           142              0          7.21            2.55  
           143              0          6.40            3.45  
           144              0          3.96            0.25  
           146              0         11.13            1.90  
           151              0          9.32            0.09  
           152              0          5.66            4.20  
           153              0         14.72            4.33  
           154              0          7.72            0.29  
           156              0          4.30            1.21  
           161              0          4.43            0.55  
           162              0          4.04            1.31  
           163              0         10.62            1.78  
           164              0          4.44            1.02  
           171              0          3.46            0.94  
           172              0          7.10            1.91  
           173              0          5.46            3.10  
           174              0         11.04           -0.31  


           Mkt              0          6.69            1.76