ARCHIVES: Quarter 3 Year 2019

ECONOMIC NEWS:

A major 7.5 earthquake rumbled along the Mississippi fault line September 30th 2019.  Damage was extensive with several dams failing.  Power disruptions extend over most of the states in the center of the United States.  The quake set off a series of 5.0 to 6.5 quakes along two major fault lines on the West Coast, causing considerable damage to homes and businesses.  Of major concern was the loss of critical bridges on major transportation corridor.  Interstate 80, Interstate 5 and Interstate 10 are all closed and will be for weeks.  Interstate 80 through the Sierra mountain range, along with the major east-west rail line may be closed for months. 

 

The loss of life is considerable along the Mississippi river and its tributaries.  West Coast casualties are unknown as we go to press.  Hours after the quake a major tsunami struck the state of Hawaii causing major damage to some ports but due to early warnings, no deaths are reported.  Japan, China and Russia received the impact of the tsunami which due to early warnings, were minor in nature. The President has control of the situation and on meeting with state governors has ordered national guard units and military units to the most critical areas. 

 

Economic growth in Q3 was solid and stable.  The EU should be minimally affected in Q4 by the earthquake.  Impact will be mainly related to tourism from the United States and shipment of products between the two trading partners.  Economic activity in the United States and thus NAFTA, will be enhanced as billions of dollars are unleashed first to aid the victims, then to recover infrastructure.  The nature of the economic activity will be to pull attention from the consumer area into the needs of the greater society.

 

Interest rate held steady.  The equity markets fell sharply as investors wait to determine the extent of the damage overall and also to specific firms.

 


INDUSTRY:

 

Q4 demand estimates remain in place for the EU.   Experts at this point in time expect NAFTA demand to crash, perhaps by 30% from Q4 a year ago.
 
We called each scent facility in NAFTA and found all plants operational. Transportation from factory to store shelves is an unknown variable in the NAFTA market.  The above estimate of a 30% decline in demand incorporated a rough estimate of transportation failures.

 

Scent firms, particularly those operating plants in NAFTA are being asked to help by donating to a rebuilding fund dedicated to individual families who had major property losses and did not have insurance.  Home insurance with an earthquake rider is common in California, but not in the Midwest.  Personal losses not reimbursed by insurance will destroy many families.  If you want to help, send a note to the administrator with your donation amount.  Your firm will be noted on each donation to a family and you may use this gifting in your advertising.  Thank you, editorial staff of the Dollars and Scents Quarterly.

 


 

CONTRACT

 

Firm-to-Firm Contracts this Quarter:  

          Industry  10 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             105     105    171   Finished Goods   P2A2     6000    
             105     105    171   Finished Goods   P1A2     9000    
             107     107    116   Finished Goods   P1A1     4000    
             107     107    116   Finished Goods   P1A1     2000    
             107     107    116   Finished Goods   P2A1     7000    
             107     107    116   Finished Goods   P2A1     1000    
             107     107    116   Finished Goods   P1A2     6000    
             107     107    116   Finished Goods   P2A2    20000    
             102     165    102   Finished Goods   P1A1     3000    
             102     165    102   Finished Goods   P1A1     6000    
             102     165    102   Finished Goods   P2A1     2500    
             102     165    102   Finished Goods   P2A1     5000    

          Industry  12 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             124     153    124   Finished Goods   P2A1     4000    
             121     174    121   Finished Goods   P1A1     3000    
             121     174    121   Finished Goods   P1A2     3100    
             126     146    126   Finished Goods   P1A1     5000    
             126     146    126   Finished Goods   P2A1     5000    
             126     146    126   Finished Goods   P1A2     5000    
             126     146    126   Finished Goods   P2A2     5000    

          Industry  13 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             133     101    133   Finished Goods   P2A1     4000    
             133     101    133   Finished Goods   P1A1     3000    
             136     108    136   Finished Goods   P1A1     4000    
             136     108    136   Finished Goods   P2A1     4000    
             136     108    136   Finished Goods   P1A2     2619    
             136     108    136   Finished Goods   P2A2     4000    
             131     153    131   Finished Goods   P2A1    14100    
             131     153    131   Finished Goods   P2A1     1250    

          Industry  14 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             146     146    136   Finished Goods   P2A1     3700    
             146     146    136   Finished Goods   P2A2     3700    
             142     153    142   Finished Goods   P1A2     4500    
             142     153    142   Finished Goods   P1A2     5500    
             141     174    141   Finished Goods   P2A1    10000    
             141     174    141   Finished Goods   P2A2     3000    
             146     177    146   Finished Goods   P1A1     7000    
             146     177    146   Finished Goods   P1A1     5000    
             146     177    146   Finished Goods   P2A1     6000    
             141     154    141   Finished Goods   P2A2     2500    

          Industry  15 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
             152     152    111   Finished Goods   P2A2     6000    
             156     167    156   Finished Goods   P2A1     3000    
             156     167    156   Finished Goods   P2A2     6000    
             156     167    156   Finished Goods   P2A1     3000    
             153     153    111   Finished Goods   P1A1     2500    
             153     153    111   Finished Goods   P1A2     2500    

Peacock is now closed to all simulation teams. If your firm needs to purchase finished goods, please visit the chat room/message board forum to find other simulation teams that can supply your firm with product (linked from the "Chat" tab of the Globalview.org homepage). If your firm needs the password to access the message board/chat room forum, please contact your simulation administrator, Kristi. Note that BOTH teams must agree to the terms of a contract before it can be executed. Firms entering illegal contracts (contracts entered and submitted without the consent of the other team), will be ejected from the simulation.

 

*Remember that Peacock does NOT sell raw materials or plant hours.

 

To purchase raw materials, use the "Raw Materials" decision form. These materials must be ordered one quarter in advance of using them in production. These will always be your cheapest source of raw materials. To order plant hours, use the "Capacity" decision form to order stage 1 and stage 2 plant hours in the area or areas of your choice.


STOCKS

 


	     List of firms in order of net present value 

             Stock No.    NPV    Index  
               136       21.73      1   
               153       16.16      2   
               126        8.60      3   
               142        7.65      4   
               174        7.64      5   
               111        7.25      6   
               146        7.07      7   
               105        6.31      8   
               116        5.76      9   
               133        5.35     10   
               101        5.13     11   
               163        4.89     12   
               172        4.74     13   
               151        4.63     14   
               154        4.51     15   
               143        4.41     16   
               114        4.30     17   
               132        3.45     18   
               103        3.40     19   
               141        3.33     20   
               173        3.06     21   
               156        2.84     22   
               162        2.80     23   
               144        2.66     24   
               152        2.32     25   
               164        2.17     26   
               102        1.93     27   
               115        1.76     28   
               125        1.56     29   
               107        1.34     30   
               104        1.17     31   
               121        0.89     32   
               161        0.40     33   
               165        0.20     34   
               124        0.12     35   
               171        0.09     36   
               123       -0.02     37   
               134       -0.12     38   
               108       -0.25     39   
               131       -0.63     40   
               112       -1.06     41   
               122       -1.73     42   
               167       -1.85     43   
               177       -2.10     44   
               113       -3.19     45 
			   
			   
	Stock  
Number                  D  a  t  e  s
        20174  20181  20182  20183  20184  20191  20192  20193 
=====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  
  101    3.91   5.05   5.74   6.01   8.49   9.46   8.93   6.21 
  102    2.70   2.57   3.03   3.29   3.84   4.22   4.06   2.30 
  103    3.05   3.32   3.84   4.24   5.42   7.01   7.81   7.72 
  104    2.54   2.24   2.34   2.74   3.46   3.90   3.96   3.19 
  105    3.82   5.63   7.87   9.85   9.71  11.60  12.13  11.72 
  107    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.72   5.18   5.58 
  108    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.25   4.13   4.41 
  111    2.94   3.01   3.20   4.41   7.12   9.64   8.44   8.60 
  112    2.78   2.77   1.83   1.64   2.09   2.26   2.30   2.33 
  113    4.31   3.13   1.28   0.94   1.45   1.74   1.59   1.06 
  114    2.89   3.02   3.72   4.02   5.37   7.61   8.03   7.03 
  115    2.73   2.56   3.00   3.35   3.68   5.01   5.30   4.87 
  116    3.54   5.11   6.97   8.14   8.76  12.39   9.96  11.65 
  121    2.86   3.06   3.22   3.90   4.06   4.79   5.20   5.16 
  122    3.72   3.73   3.68   3.31   3.63   3.66   2.30   0.54 
  123    2.48   2.58   2.78   2.78   2.76   3.06   3.28   2.84 
  124    2.66   2.71   2.51   2.21   2.64   2.99   3.19   3.26 
  125    3.14   3.53   3.08   2.82   4.30   5.07   5.08   4.71 
  126    4.21   4.98   6.56   7.84  15.84  17.08  17.32  16.77 
  131    2.89   2.72   2.81   2.46   3.03   2.98   2.49   2.28 
  132    2.96   4.00   4.64   4.71   5.91   7.28   7.99   7.71 
  133    3.50   2.84   4.05   4.73   9.63   9.66  11.23  10.88 
  134    3.09   3.25   3.64   3.86   3.32   3.29   3.26   2.87 
  136    3.96   9.60  11.51  13.86  28.13  33.45  32.02  31.79 
  141    3.02   2.94   3.51   3.81   4.00   5.78   5.91   6.14 
  142    2.96   3.08   3.62   4.66   7.21   9.14   9.65   7.61 
  143    2.60   3.35   3.52   2.95   6.40   8.47   8.88   8.23 
  144    2.90   3.64   3.71   3.71   3.96   3.72   3.70   2.69 
  146    3.73   8.19   9.14   9.23  11.13  12.65  13.02  13.22 
  151    3.86   4.53   7.56   9.23   9.32   9.99   9.44   9.73 
  152    3.64   3.71   1.38   1.46   5.66   8.83   8.20   7.30 
  153    3.50   8.35  10.00  10.39  14.72  18.59  23.56  26.00 
  154    3.84   5.03   6.45   7.43   7.72   6.26   6.06   6.28 
  156    2.64   2.73   2.94   3.09   4.30   5.51   5.62   5.06 
  161    2.84   3.09   3.54   3.88   4.43   4.16   4.57   3.73 
  162    2.61   2.65   2.52   2.73   4.04   5.13   5.26   4.60 
  163    3.65   6.69   9.19   8.84  10.62   9.67   9.98   8.54 
  164    2.70   2.61   2.84   3.42   4.44   6.02   6.72   5.28 
  165    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.27   4.19 
  167    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.85   2.10 
  171    3.50   2.62   2.27   2.52   3.46   4.46   4.59   4.25 
  172    3.50   3.66   4.62   5.19   7.10   7.99   7.61   6.24 
  173    3.50   2.64   2.90   2.36   5.46   6.65   7.24   7.39 
  174    3.50   7.42   9.66  11.35  11.04  13.72  12.62  11.05 
  177    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.43   4.42   2.57 

  Mkt    3.36   3.96   4.52   4.93   6.69   7.61   7.56   7.06 
TBill  0.0200 0.0000 0.0037 0.0050 0.0063 0.0075 0.0088 0.0100 


          Stock        Shares        Closing                 
         Number        Traded         Price           Change 
         ======      ========        =======         ========
           101              0          6.21           -2.72  
           102              0          2.30           -1.76  
           103              0          7.72           -0.09  
           104              0          3.19           -0.77  
           105              0         11.72           -0.41  
           107              0          5.58            0.40  
           108              0          4.41            0.28  
           111              0          8.60            0.16  
           112              0          2.33            0.03  
           113              0          1.06           -0.53  
           114              0          7.03           -1.00  
           115              0          4.87           -0.43  
           116              0         11.65            1.69  
           121              0          5.16           -0.04  
           122              0          0.54           -1.76  
           123              0          2.84           -0.44  
           124              0          3.26            0.07  
           125              0          4.71           -0.37  
           126              0         16.77           -0.55  
           131              0          2.28           -0.21  
           132              0          7.71           -0.28  
           133              0         10.88           -0.35  
           134              0          2.87           -0.39  
           136              0         31.79           -0.23  
           141              0          6.14            0.23  
           142              0          7.61           -2.04  
           143              0          8.23           -0.65  
           144              0          2.69           -1.01  
           146              0         13.22            0.20  
           151              0          9.73            0.29  
           152              0          7.30           -0.90  
           153              0         26.00            2.44  
           154              0          6.28            0.22  
           156              0          5.06           -0.56  
           161              0          3.73           -0.84  
           162              0          4.60           -0.66  
           163              0          8.54           -1.44  
           164              0          5.28           -1.44  
           165              0          4.19           -0.08  
           167              0          2.10           -1.75  
           171              0          4.25           -0.34  
           172              0          6.24           -1.37  
           173              0          7.39            0.15  
           174              0         11.05           -1.57  
           177              0          2.57           -1.85  


           Mkt              0          7.06           -0.50