ARCHIVES: Quarter 4 Year 2018

ECONOMIC NEWS:

What a year!  Equity markets and GDP are into new territory.  Unemployment is down to a minimum.  Interest rates are fairly high due to tight monetary policy, which seems to be gradually reigning in an excessively robust economy.  As the economy is reigned in, inflation will more than likely decline to an unwanted but tolerable level.  Tax revenues have stabilized government programs.  In the EU this means some balance in revenues and expenditures which should remain as long as austerity cuts put in place aren’t suddenly repealed.  Mexico and Canada seem well positioned in that regard.  The United States is still spending faster than revenues permit.

 

The increasing discrepancy between balanced budgets (EU) and deficit budgets (US) might cause central banks to terminate their coordinated monetary policies.  This in turn could affect EU/NAFTA growth rates, inflation rates, interest rates and eventually exchange rates.

 

Forecasters see 2019 as a solid growth year.  They expect considerable labor unrest in NAFTA and the start of labor negotiations throughout the NAFTA and EU regions.  None of the negotiations/strikes should be so volatile as to disrupt the broader economy.  Tight credit and high interest rates should keep economic growth within long term sustainable limits and inflation should moderate.

 

Economists and analysts anticipate governments will start to refocus on global warming issues.  The global economy will also have a good year.  China will have continuous growing pains as it attempts to balance its priorities.  Of major concern to China is the rapid increase in imports due to elite consumer demand and the loss of exports as international firms move outsourcing to less expensive nations.  There has also been a movement of NAFTA firms, which relocated to China, to move back to NAFTA.  This is due to more friendly regulations and lower transportation costs.

 


INDUSTRY

Raw material price increases took affect with Type 1 moving up $.98 and Type 2 moving up $.35.

 

Analysts for the scent industry think the economy and the industry have recovered and that future growth is all about ‘new’ progress as compared to the last couple of years of ‘recovery’ progress.  Thus, future growth in the scent industry will more likely link closely to GDP growth, which has a rather modest long term growth outlook.

 


CONTRACT

 

Firm to Firm Contracts

	          Industry  2 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              24      51     24   Finished Goods   P2A1     2000    
              24      43     24   Finished Goods   P2A2     4500    
              24      24     43   Finished Goods   P2A1     1500    
              21      35     21   Finished Goods   P1A1     9449    

          Industry  3 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              35      35     54   Finished Goods   P2A1     2000    
              35      35     54   Finished Goods   P2A1      968    

          Industry  5 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              54      24     54   Finished Goods   P2A1     2500    
              54      31     54   Finished Goods   P2A1     1000    

 

Peacock is now closed to ALL Simulation Teams. Any contracts entered this quarter and all future quarters will be deleted.

 

If your firm does not have a manufacturing plant you may negotiate with other simulation teams to purchase finished goods. You may NOT enter a contract with another simulation team without that team's confirmation of agreement to all contract details. Entering unauthorized contracts is illegal and will not be tolerated.

 

If your firm does not yet have the password for the Chat Room/Message Board forum please contact Kristi your simulation administrator for assistance.

 

*Remember that Peacock does NOT sell raw materials or plant hours. To purchase raw materials, use the "Raw Materials" decision form. These materials must be ordered one quarter in advance of using them in production. These will always be your cheapest source of raw materials.

 

To order plant hours, use the "Capacity" decision form to order stage 1 and stage 2 plant hours in the area or areas of your choice.

 


STOCKS:

 List of firms in order of net present value 

             Stock No.    NPV    Index  
                21        5.35      1   
                35        3.31      2   
                32        3.13      3   
                44        2.95      4   
                31        1.34      5   
                23        1.18      6   
                25        0.92      7   
                54        0.84      8   
                53        0.79      9   
                41        0.48     10   
                55        0.29     11   
                33        0.27     12   
                34        0.05     13   
                24       -0.08     14   
                43       -0.28     15   
                52       -0.34     16   
                22       -0.47     17   
                45       -1.17     18   
                42       -1.59     19   
                51       -2.62     20  

Stock  
Number                  D  a  t  e  s
        20174  20181  20182  20183  20184 
=====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  
   21    3.83   3.98   4.05   1.05   9.48 
   22    2.91   3.23   2.01   2.43   2.55 
   23    2.76   3.06   3.48   3.72   4.18 
   24    2.42   2.38   2.52   2.43   2.85 
   25    2.90   3.30   3.56   3.64   4.31 
   31    3.96   5.70   6.39   6.59   6.34 
   32    2.72   3.40   3.08   2.58   5.53 
   33    2.59   2.83   2.85   3.03   3.43 
   34    2.62   2.76   2.95   2.94   3.24 
   35    4.02   4.96   6.08   6.59   7.89 
   41    2.41   2.69   2.90   3.06   3.44 
   42    4.28   3.39   1.43   1.77   3.27 
   43    2.39   2.58   2.77   2.90   2.57 
   44    2.66   2.96   3.46   3.71   6.18 
   45    2.46   2.21   1.15   1.11   1.57 
   51    3.88   3.66   1.04   1.05   1.53 
   52    3.31   3.49   3.54   3.50   3.61 
   53    2.99   3.27   3.55   3.72   4.24 
   54    3.01   3.35   3.58   3.70   4.32 
   55    3.25   3.71   3.95   4.09   4.10 

  Mkt    3.07   3.35   3.22   3.18   4.23 
TBill  0.0200 0.0025 0.0037 0.0050 0.0063 


          Stock        Shares        Closing                 
         Number        Traded         Price           Change 
         ======      ========        =======         ========
            21              0          9.48            8.43  
            22              0          2.55            0.12  
            23              0          4.18            0.46  
            24              0          2.85            0.42  
            25              0          4.31            0.67  
            31              0          6.34           -0.25  
            32              0          5.53            2.95  
            33              0          3.43            0.40  
            34              0          3.24            0.30  
            35              0          7.89            1.30  
            41              0          3.44            0.38  
            42              0          3.27            1.50  
            43              0          2.57           -0.33  
            44              0          6.18            2.47  
            45              0          1.57            0.46  
            51              0          1.53            0.48  
            52              0          3.61            0.11  
            53              0          4.24            0.52  
            54              0          4.32            0.62  
            55              0          4.10            0.01  


           Mkt              0          4.23            1.05