Quarter 3 Year 2019

STOCKS

 

       List of firms in order of net present value 

             Stock No.    NPV    Index  
			      List of firms in order of net present value 

             Stock No.    NPV    Index  
                44        6.56      1   
                32        4.51      2   
                21        4.23      3   
                35        3.97      4   
                53        2.11      5   
                23        2.08      6   
                25        1.70      7   
                31        1.62      8   
                54        1.32      9   
                42        1.12     10   
                41        1.07     11   
                22        0.93     12   
                33        0.63     13   
                55        0.54     14   
                24        0.39     15   
                34        0.28     16   
                52       -0.83     17   
                45       -1.07     18   
                43       -1.09     19   
                26       -1.61     20   
                51       -2.19     21   


Stock  
Number                  D  a  t  e  s
        20174  20181  20182  20183  20184  20191  20192  20193 
=====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  
   21    3.83   3.98   4.05   1.05   9.48   8.74   5.86   6.43 
   22    2.91   3.23   2.01   2.43   2.55   3.32   3.36   3.38 
   23    2.76   3.06   3.48   3.72   4.18   4.79   4.55   4.23 
   24    2.42   2.38   2.52   2.43   2.85   3.09   2.82   2.77 
   25    2.90   3.30   3.56   3.64   4.31   4.93   4.84   4.52 
   26    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.06   2.57 
   31    3.96   5.70   6.39   6.59   6.34   6.93   7.01   6.90 
   32    2.72   3.40   3.08   2.58   5.53   7.55   6.69   4.45 
   33    2.59   2.83   2.85   3.03   3.43   3.57   4.07   4.27 
   34    2.62   2.76   2.95   2.94   3.24   3.77   3.75   3.26 
   35    4.02   4.96   6.08   6.59   7.89   8.77   8.27   6.43 
   41    2.41   2.69   2.90   3.06   3.44   3.75   3.58   3.35 
   42    4.28   3.39   1.43   1.77   3.27   5.06   5.67   5.56 
   43    2.39   2.58   2.77   2.90   2.57   1.35   1.40   1.37 
   44    2.66   2.96   3.46   3.71   6.18   8.04   8.97   9.37 
   45    2.46   2.21   1.15   1.11   1.57   1.80   1.85   2.10 
   51    3.88   3.66   1.04   1.05   1.53   1.86   1.80   1.69 
   52    3.31   3.49   3.54   3.50   3.61   3.46   2.70   3.14 
   53    2.99   3.27   3.55   3.72   4.24   4.30   4.37   4.19 
   54    3.01   3.35   3.58   3.70   4.32   4.84   4.94   4.64 
   55    3.25   3.71   3.95   4.09   4.10   4.28   4.24   4.39 


  Mkt    3.07   3.35   3.22   3.18   4.23   4.71   4.51   4.24 

TBill  0.0200 0.0025 0.0037 0.0050 0.0063 0.0075 0.0088 0.0100 

          Stock        Shares        Closing                 
         Number        Traded         Price           Change 
         ======      ========        =======         ========
            21              0          6.43            0.57  
            22              0          3.38            0.02  
            23              0          4.23           -0.32  
            24              0          2.77           -0.05  
            25              0          4.52           -0.32  
            26              0          2.57           -1.49  
            31              0          6.90           -0.11  
            32              0          4.45           -2.24  
            33              0          4.27            0.20  
            34              0          3.26           -0.49  
            35              0          6.43           -1.84  
            41              0          3.35           -0.23  
            42              0          5.56           -0.11  
            43              0          1.37           -0.03  
            44              0          9.37            0.40  
            45              0          2.10            0.25  
            51              0          1.69           -0.11  
            52              0          3.14            0.44  
            53              0          4.19           -0.18  
            54              0          4.64           -0.30  
            55              0          4.39            0.15  

           Mkt              0          4.24           -0.27  
 
 

Admin Notes:

1. Congratulations to Allure Inc. (Firm 52) for successfully opening their subsidiary Firm 26 in Quarter 3, 2019.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

A major 7.5 earthquake rumbled along the Mississippi fault line September 30th 2019.  Damage was extensive with several dams failing.  Power disruptions extend over most of the states in the center of the United States.  The quake set off a series of 5.0 to 6.5 quakes along two major fault lines on the West Coast, causing considerable damage to homes and businesses.  Of major concern was the loss of critical bridges on major transportation corridor.  Interstate 80, Interstate 5 and Interstate 10 are all closed and will be for weeks.  Interstate 80 through the Sierra mountain range, along with the major east-west rail line may be closed for months. 

 

The loss of life is considerable along the Mississippi river and its tributaries.  West Coast casualties are unknown as we go to press.  Hours after the quake a major tsunami struck the state of Hawaii causing major damage to some ports but due to early warnings, no deaths are reported.  Japan, China and Russia received the impact of the tsunami which due to early warnings, were minor in nature. The President has control of the situation and on meeting with state governors has ordered national guard units and military units to the most critical areas. 

 

Economic growth in Q3 was solid and stable.  The EU should be minimally affected in Q4 by the earthquake.  Impact will be mainly related to tourism from the United States and shipment of products between the two trading partners.  Economic activity in the United States and thus NAFTA, will be enhanced as billions of dollars are unleashed first to aid the victims, then to recover infrastructure.  The nature of the economic activity will be to pull attention from the consumer area into the needs of the greater society.

 

Interest rate held steady.  The equity markets fell sharply as investors wait to determine the extent of the damage overall and also to specific firms.


INDUSTRY:

Q4 demand estimates remain in place for the EU.   Experts at this point in time expect NAFTA demand to crash, perhaps by 30% from Q4 a year ago.
 
We called each scent facility in NAFTA and found all plants operational. Transportation from factory to store shelves is an unknown variable in the NAFTA market.  The above estimate of a 30% decline in demand incorporated a rough estimate of transportation failures.

 

Scent firms, particularly those operating plants in NAFTA are being asked to help by donating to a rebuilding fund dedicated to individual families who had major property losses and did not have insurance.  Home insurance with an earthquake rider is common in California, but not in the Midwest.  Personal losses not reimbursed by insurance will destroy many families.  If you want to help, send a note to the administrator with your donation amount.  Your firm will be noted on each donation to a family and you may use this gifting in your advertising.  Thank you, editorial staff of the Dollars and Scents Quarterly.


 

CONTRACTS

 

Firm-To-Firm Contacts

          Industry  2 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              23      23     24   Finished Goods   P1A1      550  

		    Industry  3 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              35     35     43   Finished Goods   P1A1      5000    

          Industry  5 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              52      42     52   Finished Goods   P2A2     5000    
              52      26     52   Finished Goods   P2A2    15500    
              54      35     54   Finished Goods   P2A1     1500    
              54      35     54   Finished Goods   P2A1     1500    

 

Peacock is now closed to all firms. If your firm requires product in excess of your production capacity, please contact other simulation teams to negotiate contract arrangements.

 

 

*Remember that Peacock does NOT sell plant hours and does not sell raw materials. Use the "Capacity" decision menu to build or expand a manufacturing plant. Use the "Raw Materials" decision menu to purchase raw materials one quarter in advance of using them in production.