ARCHIVES: Quarter 4 Year 2019

ADMIN Notes:

 

1. WHEN FORECASTING DEMAND: Remember to view the "Contracts" section of this news report for important information relevant to calculating your "Real Market Share" (market share figures adjusted to remove Business-to-Business sales within a market group). The "Advanced Topics" section of the simulation user guide explains several forecasting methods to use depending on your firm's risk tolerance. Also, do NOT forget that the "Overview" section of the user guide contains the quarterly demand ratios you will need to use when calculating quarterly demand per product type.

 

2. Please be aware that "TOTAL UNIT SALES" INCLUDE "WHOLESALE SALES" in your Firm's Sales Report. Subtract any Wholesale Sales totals from the "Total Unit Sales" figures to determine sales to the simulated retail market.

 

3. Every Quarters 2 & 4 provide additional two-quarter cumulative reporting. To view this additional reporting information per firm, click on the firm you wish to review in the "Stock Market Report".

 

4. To access the chat room/message board forum, please request the general forum password from your instructor, Professor Manjuris, or your simulation administrator, Kristi. Kristi will send you the general forum password that will allow you to enter the platform. You may then register for an individual firm account with the forum to post messages or enter the chat room. The chat room/message board forum is how your simulation administrator Kristi will make special announcements mid-week, so it is important that all firms have an account set up.

 

5. To request a Special Report, please contact your simulation administrator, Kristi. The Special Report contains additional reporting data on all firms within a given market group (ROI, ROE, Current Ratio, Production Efficiency Factor, Average Compensation, and more). The report is updated each quarter with new data and we do not archive old reports, so please request the special report for a given quarter before the following quarter's deadline, or the report may not be available. There is a $2000 simulation dollar fee for each report, billed as a miscellaneous expense in the following quarter.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

 

What a year!  Equity markets and GDP are into new territory.  Unemployment is down to a minimum.  Interest rates are fairly high due to tight monetary policy, which seems to be gradually reigning in an excessively robust economy.  As the economy is reigned in, inflation will more than likely decline to an unwanted but tolerable level.  Tax revenues have stabilized government programs.  In the EU this means some balance in revenues and expenditures which should remain as long as austerity cuts put in place aren’t suddenly repealed.  Mexico and Canada seem well positioned in that regard.  The United States is still spending faster than revenues permit.

 

The increasing discrepancy between balanced budgets (EU) and deficit budgets (US) might cause central banks to terminate their coordinated monetary policies.  This in turn could affect EU/NAFTA growth rates, inflation rates, interest rates and eventually exchange rates.

 

Forecasters see 2020 as a solid growth year.  They expect considerable labor unrest in NAFTA and the start of labor negotiations throughout the NAFTA and EU regions.  None of the negotiations/strikes should be so volatile as to disrupt the broader economy.  Tight credit and high interest rates should keep economic growth within long term sustainable limits and inflation should moderate.

 

Economists and analysts anticipate governments will start to refocus on global warming issues.  The global economy will also have a good year.  China will have continuous growing pains as it attempts to balance its priorities.  Of major concern to China is the rapid increase in imports due to elite consumer demand and the loss of exports as international firms move outsourcing to less expensive nations.  There has also been a movement of NAFTA firms, which relocated to China, to move back to NAFTA.  This is due to more friendly regulations and lower transportation costs.

 


INDUSTRY:

 

Analysts for the scent industry think the economy and the industry have recovered and that future growth is all about ‘new’ progress as compared to the last couple of years of ‘recovery’ progress.  Thus, future growth in the scent industry will more likely link closely to GDP growth, which has a rather modest long term growth outlook.


 

CONTRACT:

 

Firm-to-Firm Product Sales This Quarter:
          Industry  2 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              26      53     26   Finished Goods   P1A1     5000    
              26      53     26   Finished Goods   P1A1     5000    
              26      53     26   Finished Goods   P2A1     5000    
              26      53     26   Finished Goods   P2A1     5000    

          Industry  3 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              36      36     21   Finished Goods   P2A2     3110    
              36      36     21   Finished Goods   P2A2     3110    

          Industry  4 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              43      43     55   Finished Goods   P2A2     7000    
              43      43     52   Finished Goods   P2A1     4702    
              43      43     52   Finished Goods   P2A1     4702    
              43      43     52   Finished Goods   P2A1      596    
              46      46     21   Finished Goods   P2A2     6000    
              42      43     42   Finished Goods   P2A2     5000    
              42      22     42   Finished Goods   P2A1     4000    

          Industry  5 
          Accepter  Buyer  Seller    Item               Quantity    
              53      53     55   Finished Goods   P1A1     3000    
              53      53     55   Finished Goods   P1A2     3000    
              53      53     55   Finished Goods   P2A1     1500    
              53      53     55   Finished Goods   P2A2     7000    
 

Peacock is now closed to all firms. If your firm does not have a manufacturing plant to produce your own products then you will need to purchase finished goods from other firms. If you have not already done so, you will need to set up an individual account in the chat room/message board system. You may ask your professor or simulation administrator for the general forum password.

 

*Remember that Peacock does NOT sell plant hours and does not sell raw materials. Use the "Capacity" decision menu to build or expand a manufacturing plant. Use the "Raw Materials" decision menu to purchase raw materials one quarter in advance of using them in production.


STOCKS:

     List of firms in order of net present value 

             Stock No.    NPV    Index 
                53        2.33      1   
                34        1.88      2   
                44        1.68      3   
                56        1.25      4   
                51        0.95      5   
                22        0.80      6   
                35        0.58      7   
                32        0.36      8   
                23        0.25      9   
                46        0.24     10   
                21        0.09     11   
                26        0.01     12   
                24        0.01     13   
                33       -0.27     14   
                43       -0.29     15   
                54       -0.40     16   
                52       -0.95     17   
                41       -1.39     18   
                42       -1.68     19   
                36       -1.70     20   
                31       -2.04     21   
                45       -2.05     22   
                55       -2.81     23   
                25       -3.71     24  

Stock  
Number                  D  a  t  e  s
        20184  20191  20192  20193  20194 
=====  =====  =====  =====  =====  =====  
   21    2.82   3.01   2.94   2.46   3.54 
   22    3.11   3.49   3.78   4.04   4.34 
   23    2.65   2.90   3.07   3.22   3.53 
   24    2.91   2.87   2.83   2.69   3.55 
   25    4.40   2.32   1.30   0.61   0.84 
   26    3.08   3.05   3.04   3.36   3.76 
   31    2.77   2.39   2.06   0.95   0.89 
   32    2.62   2.86   3.11   3.02   3.42 
   33    2.85   3.02   2.98   2.74   3.14 
   34    3.18   3.56   3.36   3.69   5.47 
   35    2.67   3.01   3.27   3.34   3.42 
   36    3.65   3.30   1.81   1.94   2.37 
   41    3.08   2.85   2.64   1.72   2.06 
   42    4.03   3.12   2.21   1.23   2.57 
   43    3.83   3.54   4.07   2.94   4.30 
   44    2.89   3.19   3.43   4.15   5.31 
   45    2.86   2.18   1.35   1.10   0.99 
   46    2.75   3.53   3.64   2.95   3.36 
   51    2.69   2.93   3.25   3.27   3.60 
   52    2.91   3.09   2.98   2.73   2.38 
   53    2.84   3.04   3.59   3.77   5.52 
   54    2.42   2.75   1.89   1.88   2.45 
   55    3.55   2.47   1.16   0.71   0.90 
   56    2.93   3.59   3.82   3.51   4.31 

  Mkt    3.06   3.00   2.82   2.58   3.17 
TBill  0.0200 0.0025 0.0037 0.0050 0.0063 


          Stock        Shares        Closing                 
         Number        Traded         Price           Change 
         ======      ========        =======         ========
            21              0          3.54            1.08  
            22              0          4.34            0.30  
            23              0          3.53            0.31  
            24              0          3.55            0.86  
            25              0          0.84            0.23  
            26              0          3.76            0.40  
            31              0          0.89           -0.06  
            32              0          3.42            0.40  
            33              0          3.14            0.40  
            34              0          5.47            1.78  
            35              0          3.42            0.08  
            36              0          2.37            0.43  
            41              0          2.06            0.34  
            42              0          2.57            1.34  
            43              0          4.30            1.36  
            44              0          5.31            1.16  
            45              0          0.99           -0.11  
            46              0          3.36            0.41  
            51              0          3.60            0.33  
            52              0          2.38           -0.35  
            53              0          5.52            1.75  
            54              0          2.45            0.57  
            55              0          0.90            0.19  
            56              0          4.31            0.80  


           Mkt              0          3.17            0.59